My working hypothesis is that 20 years is long enough to represent a true extrapolation into the future. Presumably, those areas where things are changing fastest may warrant the most investment, as well as the most creative thinking about how to modify tactics and operational plans to exploit new opportunities (and mitigate new vulnerabilities that adversaries may develop as a result of these same likely advances). Building on the methodology employed in my earlier 2000 book, Technological Change and the Future of Warfare, and refined further in my recent paper, “A Retrospective on the So-Called Revolution in Military Affairs, 2000-2020,” this paper attempts to look two decades into the future to aid in this important task for American defense planners. Defense resource decisions need to be based on concrete analysis that breaks down the categories of major military technological invention and innovation one by one and examines each. But it is not enough to wave one’s arms exuberantly about futuristic military possibilities. To be sure, technology is advancing fast in many realms. and allied weaponry, military operations, wartime preparations, and defense budget priorities. More importantly, answering it is crucial for making appropriate changes in U.S. What changes are likely in military technology over the next 20 years? This question is fascinating on its own terms.
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